Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines
  • Metaadatok
Tartalom: http://www.met.hu/omsz/kiadvanyok/idojaras/index.php?id=366
Archívum: Corvinus Kutatások
Gyűjtemény: Status = Published
Subject = Landscape planning, landscape protection, landscape design
Subject = Ecology
Subject = Meteorology
Type = Article
Cím:
Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines
Létrehozó:
Bede-Fazekas, Ákos
Horváth, Levente
Kocsis, Márton
Kiadó:
Országos Meteorológiai Szolgálat
Dátum:
2014
Téma:
Landscape planning, landscape protection, landscape design
Meteorology
Ecology
Tartalmi leírás:
The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.
Típus:
Article
PeerReviewed
Formátum:
application/pdf
Azonosító:
Bede-Fazekas, Ákos and Horváth, Levente and Kocsis, Márton (2014) Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines. Időjárás / Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, 118 (1). pp. 41-52. ISSN 0324-6329
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