| Tartalom: |
http://www.ecology.uni-corvinus.hu |
| Archívum: |
Corvinus Kutatások |
| Gyűjtemény: |
Status = Published
Subject = Meteorology
Subject = Plant protection
Type = Article
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| Cím: |
A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors
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| Létrehozó: |
Kúti , Zsuzsanna
Hirka, Anikó
Hufnagel, Levente
Ladányi, Márta
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| Kiadó: |
Penkala Bt.
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| Dátum: |
2011
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| Téma: |
Plant protection
Meteorology
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| Tartalmi leírás: |
Setting out from the database of Operophtera brumata, L. in between 1973 and 2000 due to the
Light Trap Network in Hungary, we introduce a simple theta-logistic population dynamical model based
on endogenous and exogenous factors, only. We create an indicator set from which we can choose some
elements with which we can improve the fitting results the most effectively. Than we extend the basic
simple model with additive climatic factors. The parameter optimization is based on the minimized root
mean square error. The best model is chosen according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Finally we
run the calibrated extended model with daily outputs of the regional climate model RegCM3.1, regarding
1961-1990 as reference period and 2021-2050 with 2071-2100 as future predictions. The results of the
three time intervals are fitted with Beta distributions and compared statistically. The expected changes are
discussed.
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| Típus: |
Article
PeerReviewed
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| Formátum: |
application/pdf
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| Azonosító: |
Kúti , Zsuzsanna and Hirka, Anikó and Hufnagel, Levente and Ladányi, Márta (2011) A population dynamical model of Operophtera brumata, L. extended by climatic factors. Applied Ecology and Environmental Research, 9 (4). pp. 433-447. ISSN 1589-1623
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| Kapcsolat: |
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